The secret is out: Tennessee is a good state for turkey hunting. And one down year hasn't changed that.
Boasting an estimated flock size of 300,000 turkeys, the Volunteer State has long been among or near the nation's top 10 states for hunters looking for a quality turkey hunting experience. In fact, only two states in the region — Missouri and Alabama — can boast larger turkey populations than Tennessee. The Show Me State has an estimated flock of 600,000 birds, while there are 500,000 birds in the Heart of Dixie. Georgia boasts a similar population of 300,000 birds, but doesn't harvest as many.
For sure, Tennessee has come a long way since 1951, when only two counties — Polk and Shelby — saw birds harvested.
Tennessee's turkey harvest has steadily grown since 1985, increasing every year until 2005. In two of the past three springs, the turkey harvest has dropped — including a sharp decline from 34,359 to 30,061 last year — but that hasn't changed the fact that Tennessee's turkey outlook is very good.
The possible reasons for last year's decline are as many as you can find opinions. No one knows the real reason, though a hard freeze during the first weekend of April likely kept many hunters at home and contributed to the decline.
By the fall, the harvest had bounced back. Tennessee hunters set a record fall turkey harvest of 2,886 after sharp declines in 2005 and 2006. The old record of 2,778 was set in 2004.
The Easter Freeze last year, coupled with drought conditions during the summer, raised concerns of food availability. Most oak trees in many parts of the state were already in bloom when the freeze hit, and soft mast was affected as well. There was also a question of poult survival due to the freeze, as some hens had already begun laying eggs.
TnHunting.Com turkey hunting expert Richard Burchett explained that even weather cold enough to cause a failed nest wouldn't necessarily mean doom for the spring hatch.
"If a hen attempts to nest and fails, she can simply lay another clutch and start over," Burchett said. "After the fertilization window has passed, if she still hasn't nested successfully, she will seek another tom and start the process over again. I've seen hens sitting on clutches as late as late June!"
The only drawback would be if the eggs froze internally, and the hens didn't realize their nests had failed. And that is a possibility in some areas.
On either side of Tennessee, both Missouri and South Carolina reported their lowest brood surveys — a survey taken in late summer to measure poult survival — in years.
In Tennessee, the average for hens to initiate their nests is between April 16 — a week after the freeze occurred — and and May 7. During that time frame, an average of 65% of hens initiate their nests, compared to just over 10% before April 16. Last year's summer surveys found that only around 5% had initiated their nests before April 16.
Even better, brood attrition was near average last year. Broods with seven or eight poults were 4.6 and 4.7 respectively, identical to multi-year averages. Broods with four and five poults were only slightly below average.
But the fall brood survey conducted by the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency in August continued to be grim for Tennessee.
In recent years, the brood survey has been painting an alarming picture, and this year was no exception. The number of hens without poults last year was 46.2%, up slightly from 44.3% in 2006 and well above the 20-year average of only 27.4%. The all-time high was 49.9% of hens without poults in 2005. The number of poults per hen was only 2.15, the lowest ever in the history of TWRA's brood survey. The 20-year average is 4.2 poults per hen. In 2006, the survey found 2.57 poults per hen, and 2.61 poulds per hen in 2005. Also, there were only an average of 4.2 poults per brood. That's also the lowest on record, and below the 6.2 poults per brood average. In 2006, the survey found 6.0 poults per brood, and 4.97 poults per brood in 2005.
As for the food situation, biologists point out that turkeys are resilient birds, and find ways to survive even when food supply is bleak, as was the case last fall.
"The wild turkey feeds primarily on acorns, waste grain, insects and grasses, which are unlikely to be depleted at the same time," says Dr. Darren Miller, a wildlife program manager for Weyerhauser. "A turkey's ability to forage from a variety of sources enables large populations to thrive in small areas."
Still, hunters are going to be skeptical. These are uncharted waters; in 25 years of widespread turkey hunting in Tennessee, the annual harvest had been one of steady increase, plateauing only twice and never declining . . . until now. The estimated hunter success ratio dropped to around 25% last year; at its highest, it was above 35% in 2003.
The good news is the weather shouldn't be as big a factor this year as last. There are no indications that the freak deep freeze that impacted the Southeast on Easter weekend last year will repeat itself this April. And, unlike last year — when an early green-up hindered hunters' ability to hear gobblers sounding off — this year's green-up appears to be right on schedule. The bad news is that the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting temperatures much above normal for April and May, which could lead to some sweaty days afield.
The number of new hunters to the spring game has leveled off somewhat after the explosion of the late '90s and early '00s. In fact, it has actually declined. From an estimated high of 100,000 hunters in 2002, only an estimated 80,000 headed afield last year. Of those, 21,133 killed a bird. While that 25% ratio isn't as good as the 35% that the TWRA is aiming for, it isn't bad, either. And, Tennessee's turkey harvest remains solidly in third place in the Southeast, behind Alabama and Missouri. Numerous public hunting opportunities greet Tennessee hunters, as well (Click for our annual list of public hunting hotspots).
It's difficult to ascertain what lies ahead for Tennessee hunters in 2008. At worst, the forecast should be fair. But will hunters have another banner year akin to the 2005 season, when a harvest record was set with more than 34,000 birds? That remains to be seen. TnHunting.Com projects that the 2008 harvest will be similar to the 2007 harvest. We won't see another significant drop, but we won't see a significant increase, either. Around 32,000 birds harvested seems like a good bet for the spring season.