The 2007 deer seasons in Tennessee will open at long-awaited last tomorrow, when archery season opens across the state. While some signs are mixed as we head into the 2007 seasons, it looks like another good year for Volunteer State hunters is in store.
RECORD HARVEST?
Last year, TnHunting.Com predicted the annual deer harvest would be a new state record, and that it would top 180,000. We were right on both counts, as the final harvest came in at just over 180,000, breaking the old record harvest of nearly 176,000.
Can Tennessee hunters make it two years in a row for a record harvest, and three out of the last four years?
All things considered, we're a little more leary about predicting another record harvest this year. Several fof the traditional factors show mixed results, with each being described in detail below.
TN Hunting Success
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Many counties — 39 in all — set record harvests in 2006. The total gun kill (113,928) probably wasn't a record (the state didn't separate gun and muzzleloader kills until 2005), but the total was up from 2005 (106,015). The muzzleloader kill total also increased in 2006, up from 33,935 to 39,920. The traditional archery harvest was down slightly, from 16,346 in 2005 to 16,270 in 2006, but the crossbow harvest was up substantially, from 3,800 in 2005 to 5,519 in 2006, making the total archery harvest of 21,789 the highest total since 1997, when over 22,000 deer were harvested with archery equipment. The total WMA harvest couldn't top the record set in 1987, but did represent the third consecutive year of increased harvest on WMAs.
The bottom line? Tennessee hunters fared well in 2006. The number of successful hunters (96,371) wasn't a record (the record is 100,000, set in 2004), but the percentage (47% of a total of 207,000 hunters) was, eclipsing the old record of 46%, also set in 2004. The only bad news? The total number of Tennessee deer hunters continues to shrink. Last year, the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency estimated that 207,000 deer hunters went afield, down from 211,000 in 2006 and 214,000 in 2005. The record number of hunters was 242,000 in 1999, and last year's total represented the least amount of deer hunters in the woods since TWRA changed the way it averages deer hunter numbers in 1988.
Last year's numbers also reveal that Tennessee hunters continue to buy in to the quality deer management (or at least the quality antler management) theme. Only 13.1% of all antlered deer harvested last year were spikes, down from 16.9% in 2005, and the lowest figure on record. Only 19.6% of the deer taken were three- or four-point bucks, down from 19.7% in 2005 and the second-lowest year on record. The number of 7- or 8-point bucks (37.3%), 9- or 10-point bucks (9.4) and 11-point or greater bucks (1.8%) were all record numbers as well.
The number of yearling bucks in the harvest increased slightly from 2005 (from 49.4% to 50.5%), but the percentage of mature bucks in the harvest (13.4%) was another all-time state record.
The number of does in the total harvest last year was 42.8%, up slightly from 42.7% in 2005 and the second-highest percentage on record.
Last year's mast crop wasn't great, according to TWRA's annual mast survey, but it wasn't bad, either. It was largely an average year across much of the state, which should have allowed Tennessee's deer herd to enter the breeding and winter seasons with a full belly.
The winter was relatively mild on average, though temperatures were slightly below normal the last part of January and much of February. A sharp temperature freefall in April resulted in record-setting cold temperatures, but likely wasn't enough to hinder the health of any fawns already born, which was confirmed by the large number of fawns seen by many hunters during the summer months.
MAST CROP
Many hunters feared the worst after the Easter Freeze of April 2006 killed any blooms on fruit-bearing trees across the state. More than a few hunters wondered openly whether Tennessee would experience a total mast failure.
The reports that have come in, including preliminary results from TWRA's mast survey, indicate this isn't the case. Generally speaking, acorn production was better the further north and east the oak trees are located across the state. Elevation also played a role. In the TnHunting.Com Forums, reports from Putnam County indicated no white oak acorns in that area, while reports from Union County, Scott County and Marion County indicated good white oak crops.
TWRA's data indicates that red oak production (which have a two-year maturity cycle and were not impacted by the freeze, but were impacted by the summer's drought) was slightly better than white oak production, which is described as "poor" on a statewide basis.
In areas where oaks are producing, the production should not be so much as to limit deer movement as many hunters experienced in 2005. In areas where oaks are not producing, hunters who planned ahead with food plots or who are hunting agricultural areas are likely to benefit from the lack of mast.
Regardless, any ill effects felt by deer from a lack of mast will not be in time to impact this year's hunting seasons. If anything, poor mast production will lead to an increased harvest as deer move more often and further in search of food.
Last year's mast crop was average, which should not have hurt fawn production or antler development.
WEATHER
Tennessee hunters discovered in 2005 just how much unseasonably warm weather can play into hunting success. During the opening weekend of muzzleloader season in 2005, daily high temperatures soared into the 80s, and to near 90 in West Tennessee. The kill totals fell off sharply as a result, leading to a total muzzleloader harvest of 34,012, down from 42,294 in 2004, or a decrease of nearly 20%. That decline played a large role in the overall harvest decline of 2005.
This summer, Tennessee has been locked into a warmer-than-average weather pattern; in East Tennessee, the National Weather Service termed the month of August the hottest on record. The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predicts warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southeast, including Tennessee, through December. If temperatures are slightly warmer than normal, impact on deer movement will be limited. But if temperatures rival those of 2005, deer movement might be squelched as deer move more nocturnally and less during the morning and evening hours.
EHD
Each year, an uncalculable variable seems to factor into Tennessee's deer seasons. This year, that variable could be epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD). EHD has impacted most of the state's counties, some substantially. TWRA has identified nearly 30 Tennessee counties as having "severe" die-offs, including several Unit L counties. In those counties, officials say that up to 40% of the deer herd in some localized pockets could be killed by the disease.
Experts agree that the disease will have no long-term impact on the deer herd; in areas experiencing substantial deer deaths, new deer will move in to fill the void within a maximum of two years. However, some experts disagree on the immediate impact. Still, many experts predict that hunters will notice no difference in the deer herd this fall and the deer herd last fall.
It is worth noting, however, that the last time Tennessee experienced an EHD outbreak on the scale of this year's infection was 1999. That year, hunters harvested 137,143 deer, a decrease from 149,266 in 1998 (which also featured a substantial buck limit reduction to two per year). In 2000, the harvest was back above 149,000 once more. The 1999 harvest, meanwhile, reflected the lowest harvest on record since 1994 and broke a string of four years of increased harvests. Whether it was coincidence or a direct result of the EHD outbreak is probably too soon to tell.
OTHER FACTORS
Five counties this year moved from Unit A to Unit L. Those counties included Decatur, Gibson, Houston, McNairy and Stewart, which will allow hunters in those counties to harvest more deer. One county, Cumberland, moved from Unit B to Unit A.
Another factor is two added doe days for Unit B hunters during the muzzleloader season.
Those two factors won't make a difference in the overall quality of hunting for Tennessee's hunters this fall, but could have an impact on the state's whitetail deer harvest once the final results are tallied.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Tennessee's deer herd still cannot be mentioned in the same breath with Kentucky or Illinois or Ohio when it comes to trophy buck potential. But the potential continues to improve, and the buck:doe ratio in many counties is slowly getting better due to increased doe harvests.
A large part of the success or lack thereof of Tennessee hunters will be determined by the weather on the two major opening weekends — November 3-4 and November 17-18. The lack of mast in some areas of the state will likely keep deer moving more than normal in search of food, while the availability of mast in other areas shouldn't be enough to hamper deer movement.
If the weather cooperates, we expect Tennessee deer hunters to once again draw close to 180,000 total deer harvested. A record harvest would not be surprising, but we don't look for the 200,000 total harvest that some hunters have optimistically anticipated. Likewise, a decreased harvest wouldn't be surprising, but we don't look for a major decrease like we saw in the 2005 season. All-in-all, the 2007 season should be very comparable to the 2006 season.
