Tennessee's turkey hunters harvested significantly fewer turkeys in 2007 than in 2006, preliminary numbers available from the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA) reveal.

According to TWRA's harvest report, Volunteer State hunters checked a total of 30,680 birds during the spring seasons, including 29,517 taken on the statewide hunt and 1,163 taken at wildlife management areas (WMAs) across the state.

Those numbers represent a 14.3% decrease from last year's harvest of 35,806 birds, and is the lowest total in six years. In 2001, hunters bagged 29,206 birds. By 2002, 32,225 birds were harvested.

This year's harvest total is unique because Tennessee hunters are unaccustomed to seeing decreasing kill totals. Since 1985, hunters had posted record harvests 20 out of 21 years. The only year that the harvest declined was 2005, when it dropped from 33,954 in 2004 to 33,389. And that decrease was only around 1%, significantly less than this year's 14% decrease.

Hunters are blaming a variety of factors for the decrease, including a poor hatch in the spring of 2005 resulting in fewer two-year-old birds this spring, TWRA's increased bag limit from three to four prior to the 2006 season resulting in fewer male birds in the woods this spring, a record-setting cold snap a week into the 2007 spring season, and too many hens for too few gobblers resulting in henned-up birds. On the turkey-dedicated website TnTurkey.Com, hunters had already begun debating the causes for the decrease by the time the season closed on Sunday.

According to TWRA's totals, the statewide harvest of 29,517 is 14.1% fewer than the statewide harvest of 34,365 a year ago. WMAs took the hardest hit, dropping 19% from 1,441 birds harvested in 2005 to 1,163 birds harvested in 2006.

All of the numbers are likely to change slightly in the days to come as a few kill tags continue to trickle in.

Tennessee wasn't the only place that saw a decreased harvest in 2007. In Kentucky, where harvest results have already been returned, 22,929 birds were harvested, the lowest total since 2000 and a 20.4% decline from last year's record harvest of 28,797.

POSSIBLE CAUSE: POOR HATCH

The number one culprit in the minds of most turkey hunters seems to be the perceived poor hatch in the spring of 2005.

It's true that TWRA's annual summer brood survey in 2005 was the worst on record, with half of all hens (49.9%) without poults, a ratio of 2.61 poults per hen and an average of 4.97 poults per brood. All numbers were the lowest TWRA had ever recorded. Particularly alarming was the number of hens without poults. Prior to 2005, the two worst years for hens with poults were 1997 and 2003. Each year, around 39% of hens were found with poults. While the 2006 brood survey was slightly improved over 2005, it was still the second-worst on record, with 44.3% of hens without poults.

Interestingly, the last time Tennessee experienced a bad hatch prior to 2005 was 2003. In addition to the 39.4% of hens without poults in 2003, up from 26.4% in 2002, the brood survey found a brood:hen ratio of only 2.41 poults for every hen, a decline from 3.8 the previous year, and an average brood of 6.04 poults. Two years later, when the 2003 poults would be two-year-old birds, Tennessee hunters saw the only other ecreased harvest on record.

If the poor hatch was the culprit, things aren't likely to improve much in 2008; The 2006 survey was only slightly better than the 2005 survey, with 44.3% of hens without poults, a ratio of 2.57 poults per hen and an average brood size of 6.0 poults. All are lower than the survey's 20-year averages.

POSSIBLE CAUSE: INCREASED BAG LIMIT

Some hunters are turning their ire on TWRA for increasing the statewide bag limit from three bearded birds per hunter to four bearded birds per hunter prior to the 2006 season. In the first season after the increased limit went into effect, Tennessee's harvest increased 6.8%, from 33,389 in 2005 to 35,806 in 2006.

Was that increase greater than the increase in Tennessee's flock size (currently estimated at around 325,000 birds) and the increasing number of hunters heading to the woods? TWRA had argued that the vast majority of hunters kill no more than one bird, and even fewer would have an opportunity to take four birds, meaning the increased bag limit would have a minimal effect.

Even with a stable bag limit, Tennessee's harvest has typically increased as the flock has increased and the sport has become more popular. Over the past five years, Tennessee's spring harvest had increased annually by an average of 6.7%, nearly the same as the 6.8% increase in 2006. However, much of that increase is due to the 20.8% increase from 2000 to 2001, when the harvest jumped from 23,136 to 29,206 birds. And, there were signs that the increase was slowing. After an increase of 9.4% increase in 2002, the harvest had increased 3.3% in 2003, 1.8% in 2004 and decreased 1.7% in 2005.

Still, a decreased harvest in Kentucky similar to what Tennessee witnessed suggests that other factors may have been at play. In terms of percentages, the decreased harvest was more clearly defined on WMAs, where the increased bag limit would not have had an impact than it was on statewide hunts, where the increased bag limit could have resulted in fewer birds in the woods.

POSSIBLE CAUSE: THE WEATHER

A further look at the numbers reveals that Tennessee hunters started the 2007 season on pace to break the 2006 harvest record. On the March 24-25 youth hunt, hunters killed 1,155 birds, a 24.1% increase over last year's pre-season youth hunt, when hunters bagged 877 birds.

On opening weekend (March 31-April 1) this year, the total harvest was 7,830. That's a slight 1.2% increase over last year, when the opening weekend harvest was 7,737 on March 30-31, 2006.

By the Tuesday after opening day this year (April 3), a total of 11,661 birds had been killed. That's a 4.6% increase over the same amount of time last year, when 11,122 birds had been killed by Tuesday, April 4, 2006.

Then, on the night of April 3 and into April 4, a strong storm system rolled across Tennessee and record artic cold plunged in behind it, with several nights of well below freezing temperatures. By Saturday, April 8, dawn found temperatures in the teens in higher elevations and in the 20s elsewhere. That weekend, 1,843 birds were killed. That's a 57.6% decrease over the second weekend last year, when 3,202 birds were killed.

After that, the 2007 harvest trailed the 2006 harvest until the season closed.

Those numbers lend credence to the theory that the weather played a significant factor in the decreased turkey harvest, though a poor hatch and an increased bag limit cannot be ruled out as secondary factors.

LEADERS OF THE PACK

Barring something drastic, it appears that Dickson County will post the highest county harvest in the state in 2007, with 896 birds harvested. Greene County was the only other county to top 800, posting a harvest of 825. Third place belongs to Maury County, at 747, followed by Giles County (737) and Montgomery County (730).

The sixth-highest county total belongs to Henry County, with 675 birds, followed by Hardeman County (615), Wilson County (606), Rutherford County (599) and Hardin County (591).

Among WMAs, South Cherokee posted the highest total, at 143. Second was Land Between the Lakes, at 118, followed by Milan Army Ammunition Plant, at 104. Chuck Swan posted a harvest of 94 birds, while Catoosa posted 86 kills. Sixth place was Cheatham WMA, at 75 birds, followed by AEDC (63), Yanahli (40), Tennessee National Wildlife Refuge (36) and Natchez Trace (36).