By BEN GARRETT
TnHunting.Com Publisher

In less than 24 hours, Tennessee's 2006 deer seasons will officially begin when archery season opens across the state. If the traditional indicators are on target, all signs point towards a banner year for Volunteer State deer hunters in 2006.

RECORD HARVEST?

We predict that Tennessee deer hunters will harvest a record number of deer in 2006. The current record is 179,542, set in 2004, the second year after TWRA split Unit A by creating Unit L (a.k.a. Unit "Liberal"). Last year, the deer harvest was down nine percent to 166,379. But even at that, 2005 was the second-highest year on record in Tennessee.

There are several factors that contributed to a poorer harvest in 2005. TWRA officials have speculated that poor weather during opening weekend of muzzleloader season hampered the black powder harvest. The total muzzleloader harvest in 2005 was 42,294, down from 34,012; that represents a decrease of 8,282 animals, or nearly 20 percent. But the modern gun harvest — during which relatively good weather was experienced — also took a hit, down 9,672, or nine percent, to 95,575.

Interestingly, while the overall gun harvest was down by nine percent, opening weekend totals were up drastically, a whopping 27 percent, with 26,120 deer killed on the opening weekend of 2005, as opposed to 19,021 in 2004. But the 2004 opening weekend was relatively poor, ranking as only the 10th-best opening weekend, in terms of total deer killed, since 1984.

The number of deer killed by traditional or compound bows decreased from 19,331 in 2004 to 16,346 in 2005, but that decrease was due primarily to the legalization of crossbows during the archery hunting season. That rule change came at the TWRC's May 2005 seasons-setting meeting in Nashville, and crossbow hunters immediately took advantage of the change, arrowing a total of 3,800 deer. Figured together, the total number of deer harvested with archery equipment in 2005 was 20,146, the first year the archery harvest topped 20,000 since 2001.

Another factor to the harvest decline of 2005 — and, again, we use the term "decline" loosely, since without 2004 in the equation, 2005 would have been a record year — was a substantial mast crop in 2005, which should factor heavily into this year's scenario. The heavy mast crop prevented deer from being forced to move wide distances in search of food sources, which hampered hunter success. Interestingly, the TWRA's annual mast survey in 2005 measured only a medium acorn crop in the best areas, and a poor acorn crop in many areas. The Mississippi River region figured as the best area of the state to find acorns, while the Central Basin region was the poorest, according to the TWRA's survey. But most hunters we talked to indicated a substantial mast crop in their neck of the woods in 2005, and many veteran hunters agree that deer are not going to move as much when the acorns are ankle-deep . . . at least not until the rut rolls around. And, even then, with the poor herd balance found in much of Tennessee, movement will be minimalized by a strong acorn crop.

THE MAST CROP

It was hardly slim pickins' for whitetails in Tennessee in 2005, as one of the most bountiful mast crops in several years, according to the hunters we spoke with, had deer fat and healthy heading into the winter months. The excellent food availability, a mild winter and good spring weather should have combined to produce a good birthing season in Tennessee this spring. A summer that was dry or not overly so should have allowed for at least average fawn survival. There should be plenty of deer roaming between the levees of West Tennessee and the Appalachian mountains of East Tennessee this fall.

Not only should the birthing season have been a success, but this year's antler growth should benefit from the good mast crop last year as well.

All indications are that the 2006 mast crop is moderate: Good enough to sustain the herd but not so heavy that hunter success will be limited as it was in 2005. Reports indicate that white oak production is spotty-to-moderate throughout the state, and red oak production is moderate-to-good throughout much of the state.

AN IMPROVING HERD

Tennessee's deer hunters continue to buy into the aspect of trophy deer management. In 2005, more seven- and eight-point bucks were killed than in any other size category, with 26,913 harvested, or 32 percent of the total antlered harvest. By comparison, 22.8 percent of bucks killed were five- and six-point bucks, 19.8 percent were three- and four-point bucks, and 16.7 percent were spikes. 7.4 percent were nine- and 10-point bucks, while 1.3 percent were 11-point or bigger.

The 32 percent of seven- and eight-point bucks killed in 2005 was a record, up from 30.6 percent in 2004. The size structure of Tennessee's harvest continues to improve. In 1998, the year Tennessee's buck limit decreased to two, seven- and eight-point bucks was the largest size group of bucks harvested, and the figures have been improving every year since.

More importantly, the age structure of Tennessee's buck harvest continues to improve. In 2005, for the first time, the yearling (1.5-year-old) harvest made up less than 50 percent of the total buck harvest, at 49.4 percent. The number of 2.5-year-old bucks in Tennessee's harvest in 2005 was 39.1 percent, while the number of 3.5-year-old bucks was 11.5 percent. That figure has also been improving since 1998, and peaked in 2004 at 13.0 percent.

Prior to 1999, the percentage of 3.5-year-old or older bucks in Tennessee's harvest never reached double-digits.

Most people are surprised to learn that Tennessee hunters are now taking more 2.5-year-old and older bucks than the big buck meccas of the Midwest, like Illinois, Ohio and Iowa.

In fact, in 2005, there were .96 bucks that were aged 2.5-years or older harvested per square mile in Tennessee, compared to just .77 in Illinois, .62 in Ohio and .55 in Kentucky. While antler sizes continue to lag far behind Tennessee's northern neighbors — Kentucky still has more than 10 times the number of Boone & Crockett bucks killed each year than Tennessee — there are more quality whitetail bucks being killed in Tennessee right now than ever before, prompting the TWRA to call Tennessee one of the south's best-kept secrets for whitetail deer.

"The focus of Tennessee's deer management program over the next few years is to dispell these myths that our herd is screwed up and to try to educate our hunters as to what's really out there as opposed to what they think is out there," TWRA Big Game Coordinator Daryl Ratajczak has said.

While Tennessee deer are growing larger, hunter success is also improving. In 2005, 43 percent of hunters were successful in tagging at least one deer. That's down slightly from the 46 percent rate of 2004, but was expected since the overall harvest was down in 2005. Hunter success ratios have been continously improving in Tennessee. Twenty years ago, only 25 percent of Tennessee hunters were successful in killing a deer. Ten years ago, that number had increased to 39 percent. Since 2000, there has not been a year that hunter success was below 42 percent.

WEATHER

A good mast crop and a good, healthy herd mean nothing for hunters if the weather doesn't hold fair, as was shown by the sharp decline in muzzleloader kills last year. Unfortunately for hunters hoping for crisp, cool temperatures throughout the fall, it appears that an El Nino weather pattern will manifest its grip on Tennessee and much of the Eastern U.S. this fall and winter. According to NOAA predictions, it appears that the western half of Tennessee will likely be dryer than average in the months of October, November and December, while the eastern half will be close to average in terms of precipitation. NOAA predictions indicate that the entire state will be warmer than normal during the months of October through December.

THE BOTTOM LINE

"We can’t help but predict great things for 2006," the TWRA states in the annual Tennessee Hunting & Trapping Guide, which was released in July.

Neither can we. All things considered, if weather patterns on the major opening weekends (Nov. 4-5 and Nov. 18-19) hold fair, we predict that Tennessee's total deer harvest this year could top 180,000.

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